WEAK
POINTS IN THE LONE-GUNMAN THEORY:
PROBLEMS
WITH THE THEORY THAT A SINGLE ASSASSIN KILLED PRESIDENT KENNEDY
Michael T. Griffith
2002
@All Rights Reserved
Second Edition
Defenders of the Warren Commission's
lone-gunman theory of the JFK assassination sometimes express frustration over
the fact that public opinion polls consistently show that two-thirds to
three-quarters or more of the American people don't accept the single-assassin
theory but instead believe Kennedy was killed by a conspiracy.
Why do so many people find the lone-gunman
theory to be implausible? Why do so many people reject the opinions offered by
the small group of experts who still support the single-assassin hypothesis?
Why do most people who study the case come away believing Kennedy was killed by
a conspiracy?
I suggest one reason is that the key
assumptions on which the lone-gunman theory relies are incredible on their
face, and only look worse upon closer examination. For example, the
single-assassin scenario stands or falls on the infamous, convoluted
single-bullet theory, a theory that was rejected by two members of the Warren
Commission (WC) itself and by the scientist who conducted the commission's
wound ballistics tests (and those tests flatly contradicted the theory). More
will be said about the single-bullet theory further on in this article.
Another foundational assumption of the
lone-gunman theory is that every single one of the dozens of earwitnesses in
Dealey Plaza who said they heard shots from the front really only heard
"echoes" from the sixth-floor of the Texas School Book Depository
Building, even though some of those witnesses were specifically asked if they
thought they might have heard echoes and replied they were certain they heard shots
coming from in front of the president's limousine. Many people who read the
earwitness accounts and who watch film footage of these witnesses recalling
hearing shots from the front come away highly skeptical of the argument that
these witnesses were "confused" and merely heard "echoes."
Let us now examine five weak points in the
lone-gunman theory.
1. THE ALLEGED SHOOTING FEAT
No rifleman has ever duplicated the shooting
feat attributed to Lee Harvey Oswald, the alleged single assassin. There are
various lone-gunman shooting scenarios floating around, but they all theorize
that one gunman scored two hits out of three shots in 6 to 9 seconds while
firing at a moving target from 60 feet up using a Mannlicher-Carcano
bolt-action rifle—on the first and only
attempt. In 1967 CBS News conducted a fairly realistic simulation involving
eleven expert riflemen firing at a moving target sled from a 60-foot tower
using a Carcano rifle (but not the alleged murder weapon itself). Not one of those expert riflemen scored
two hits on his first attempt, and seven of them failed to do so on ANY
attempt, even though they fired under easier conditions than those in which
Oswald would have fired and even though they were allowed to fire nine practice
rounds prior to the test.
The WC's own rifle tests were equally
revealing: The commission hired three Master-rated riflemen to attempt to
duplicate Oswald's alleged shooting feat. The three Master-rated shooters who
participated in that test fired 18 rounds while using the scope and three
rounds while using the iron sights. They used the alleged murder weapon, the
Mannlicher-Carcano that was traced to Lee Harvey Oswald. So how did they
do? They missed the head and neck area
of the target board silhouettes 18 out of 18 times when they used the scope,
and 2 out of 3 times when they used the iron sights. In other words, they
missed the head and neck area of the silhouettes 20 out of 21 times. Several of
their misses were far apart on the boards. Some of their shots missed the
silhouettes entirely. It's revealing that they shot so poorly even though they
were allowed to take as long as they wanted for the first shot, even though two
of them took longer than 6 seconds to fire, even though they were only firing
from 30 feet up, and even though they were shooting at stationary--yes,
stationary--target boards.
The three riflemen in the test were named
Miller, Hendrix, and Staley. (Their first names were never given.) In the first
series, Miller took 4.6 seconds to fire three shots, Staley took 6.75 seconds,
and Hendrix took 8.25 seconds. In the next series, Miller took 5.15 seconds,
Staley took 6.45 seconds, and Hendrix took 7 seconds. It bears repeating that
Oswald would have had only one attempt, only one series. Oswald supposedly
scored two hits out of three shots, yet Miller, Hendrix, and Staley missed the
head and neck area of the silhouettes 20 out of 21 times.
Nearly all lone-gunman theorists argue that
Oswald would have had as much as 9 or even 10 seconds, not just 6 seconds.
However, in order to give their single shooter that much time, these WC
supporters must assume he completely
missed, not only Kennedy, but the entire huge presidential limousine, with
his first and closest shot, that is, that he missed such a gigantic target from
60 feet up and from less than 140 feet away. Even the WC balked at the idea
that its lone gunman would have missed so badly with his first and closest
shot. Said the commission,
On the other hand,
the greatest cause for doubt that the first shot missed is the improbability
that the same marksman who twice hit a moving target would be so inaccurate on the first and closest of his shots as to
miss completely, not only the target, but the large automobile. (Warren Commission Report, p. 111)
Of course, the single-assassin shooting
scenario must assume that the supposed lone gunman completely missed the
limousine with one of his alleged three shots. It's hard to imagine how even a
mediocre marksman like Oswald could have missed such a large target, even from
270-300 feet away, much less from 140 feet away.
2. THE SINGLE-BULLET THEORY
As mentioned, the lone-gunman theory
foundationally depends on the single-bullet theory. In a nutshell, this theory
says that the bullet that struck Kennedy in the back exited his throat and went
on to strike Governor John Connally in the back, tore through Connally's chest,
hit his right wrist, shattering a strong bone in the wrist in the process, and
ended up partially embedded in his left thigh. The bullet that the commission
claimed performed the above scenario is officially known as Commission Exhibit
399, which is usually abbreviated as CE 399.
Simply put, no bullet has ever done the same
amount of damage attributed to CE 399 and emerged in the same condition as CE 399.
In the commission's own wound ballistics tests, bullets that were merely fired
into cotton wadding suffered more visible damage than CE 399, and bullets that
were fired into animal chests emerged clearly more damaged than CE 399. The
1992 All-American Television wound ballistics test directed by Dr. Cyril Wecht
likewise contradicted the single-bullet theory. In this test a 6.5 mm Carcano
bullet was fired into two gelatin blocks. The second block contained animal
bones to simulate the shattering of a rib bone and the smashing of a wrist
bone. The bullet transited the first gelatin block and penetrated deep into the
second block. It emerged markedly more deformed than CE 399.
WC supporters cite Dr. John Lattimer's wound
ballistics tests to prove the single-bullet theory is credible. But Lattimer's
test was flawed and the results of questionable value. Lattimer used animal
tissue to simulate Kennedy's neck, a rib cage to simulate Connally's torso, and
radius bones wrapped in simulated forearms to simulate Connally's forearm. But
nothing was used to simulate Connally's back or chest muscles. Lattimer said
four bullets out of twenty struck all three objects. A picture of one of the
test bullets shows it was split at the nose in several places and was markedly
deformed, much more deformed than CE 399. When Stewart Galanor asked Lattimer,
in a filmed interview, if he could examine the bullets that struck all three
simulation objects, Lattimer said he had thrown them away (Galanor, Cover-Up, New York: Kestrel Books, 1998,
p. 42). How convenient.
When asked about the deformed nature of the
pictured bullet, Lattimer said all the damage to the missile was done when the
missile struck a piece of metal after it passed through the test objects. So
not only do we not have pictures of three of the four bullets from Lattimer's
test that struck all the simulation objects, and not only do we not have the
bullets themselves (since Lattimer says he threw them away), but we also must
take Lattimer's word that all the damage to the one pictured bullet was done
after the bullet passed through the test objects.
Lone-gunman theorists also cite a bullet
from a 1976 case that occurred in
Furthermore, the bullet in the
There are numerous other objections to the
single-bullet theory. For example, the theory requires that Kennedy was leaning
markedly forward when the bullet struck him in the back. Just how far forward
Kennedy would have had to be leaning can be seen in the NOVA computer
simulation of the single-bullet theory that was done for the 1988 documentary
"Who Shot President Kennedy?". In his book Cover-Up, Galanor presents one of the
frames from this simulation that shows Kennedy would have had to be leaning
markedly forward in order for the single-bullet theory's vertical trajectory to
be possible. The Zapruder film and photos of Kennedy during the time in
question show he was not leaning very far forward at all.
It is no exaggeration to say there is mass
confusion in the lone-gunman camp about the horizontal position of Governor
Connally in relation to President Kennedy and about the degree to which
Connally was rotated to the right at the time when the alleged magic bullet
performed its supposed feat. Some lone-gunman theorists' trajectory diagrams
place Connally so that his left shoulder is right on,
or just slightly beyond, the left edge of his jump seat. But the HSCA's
trajectory diagram puts Connally so far to the left of Kennedy that Connally's
left shoulder is close to the right edge of his wife's jump seat! Which is it
going to be? Similarly, some lone-gunman theorists measure Connally's degree of
rotation as being "only" 10-15 degrees, whereas others posit a 20-30
degree rotation. In spite of the huge differences in these "reconstructions,"
the single-bullet theory "works" in all of them. The Dave Powers film
shows Connally was seated about 7-10 inches to Kennedy's left, and the Zapruder
film shows Connally's shoulders were facing nearly straight ahead during the
time period in which CE 399 supposedly struck him. In the Zapruder film we can
see Connally's shoulders are nearly square to the roll bar in front of him
during the Z222-224 time frame, as an FBI photographic expert even acknowledged
to the WC in 1964.
Other objections to the single-bullet theory
include the following:
* CE 399 supposedly created the slits in the
front of JFK's shirt as it allegedly exited the throat. But those slits look
much more like knife cuts, and when Dr. Mantik examined the shirt at the
National Archives he discovered that the slits don't appear to be missing any
fabric--yet bullets usually remove fabric as they tear through and exit cloth.
* There is no damage to the back of
Kennedy's tie, and the nick in the front of the tie knot is clearly inward from
the left edge of the knot. So clearly the nick was not made by an exiting
bullet. Furthermore, Dr. Charles Carrico, one of the Dallas doctors who treated
the president at Parkland Hospital and the first doctor to see the president as
he was brought into the emergency room, told former Senate investigator Harold
Weisberg he did not see any nick in
the knot of Kennedy's tie before the nurses cut away the president's clothing
(Weisberg, Post Mortem, 1975, p.
375). Dr. Carrico also said he did not
see the slits in the front of JFK's shirt either. This lends considerable
weight to the critics' argument that the slits in the shirt and the nick in the
tie knot were made by the nurses as they hurriedly cut away Kennedy's clothing.
As mentioned, Dr. Carrico was the first doctor to see Kennedy's body. Dr.
Carrico said he immediately noticed the throat wound, and that the wound was above the collar. This is further
evidence the shirt slits and tie-knot nick were made by the nurses.
3. THE FRAGMENT ON THE BACK OF KENNEDY'S
HEAD AND THE 6.5 MM OBJECT ON THE AUTOPSY SKULL X-RAYS
According to the current single-assassin
theory, a bullet struck Kennedy near the cowlick region on the back of his head
at a downward angle and deposited a sizable fragment on the outer table of the
skull. The theory is that as the bullet struck the skull, the fragment was
shaved off the missile by the bottom edge
of the entrance wound. Then, somehow, this fragment ended up 1 cm from the
entrance wound. WC apologists note that a 6.5 mm "fragment" appears
on the Kennedy autopsy skull x-rays. Problems abound with this scenario.
First of all, simple common sense would
dictate that if any "shaving" were to occur to a bullet that struck
at a downward angle, the shaving would be expected to occur at the top edge of the entrance wound, not at
the bottom edge. Moreover, forensic science knows of no case where a 6.5 mm
fully metal-jacketed (FMJ) bullet has ever behaved in this manner. None of the
bullets in the WC's wound ballistics tests deposited a sizable fragment on the
outer table of the skull. FMJ bullets are designed not to lose material as they penetrate objects. In fact, in
ballistics tests conducted by forensic pathologist Dr. John Nichols, FMJ
bullets that penetrated several feet into tough Ponderosa pine emerged
virtually intact, losing very little if any of their substance.
And consider the enormity of the
contradiction in the behavior of the two posited FMJ bullets that struck their target
in the lone-gunman scenario: FMJ bullet CE 399 allegedly tore through several
layers of skin and muscle, smashed a rib bone, and shattered a tough distal
radius bone, yet lost only a few grains of its substance, if any, and emerged
with its lands and grooves intact. But the FMJ bullet that allegedly struck
Kennedy in the back of the head not only deposited a sizable fragment on the
outer table of the skull but also shattered into dozens of tiny fragments
inside the skull and blew numerous fragments out of the skull as well!
The fact that it's extremely unlikely that
an FMJ missile would have had a fragment "shaved" off it as it struck
the skull led the late firearms and ballistics expert Howard Donahue to reject
the lone-gunman explanation for the 6.5 mm object seen on the autopsy x-rays.
Donahue consulted with several forensic pathologists about the possibility of a
sizable fragment shearing off an FMJ missile as it penetrated a skull. Not one
of those experts had ever heard of an FMJ bullet behaving in this manner, and
they considered this a most unlikely scenario (see Bonar Menninger, Mortal Error,
Dr. David Mantik, a radiation oncologist and
physicist, studied the JFK autopsy x-rays and discovered that the 6.5 mm
"fragment" is not really a fragment at all, but rather an image that
has been ghosted over a small, genuine metal fragment. Dr. Mantik observed this
visually and also did optical density measurements of the 6.5 mm object using
an optical densitometer. Dr. Mantik's important discovery explains why FBI
Special Agents James Sibert and Francis O'Neill stated in their report on the
autopsy that the back-of-the-head fragment was the second largest fragment in the skull. Dr. Mantik's discovery proves
the anterior-posterior autopsy x-ray was altered.
4. THE REAR HEAD ENTRY WOUND
For years the official story on President
Kennedy's head wound was that a bullet struck slightly above the external
occipital protuberance (EOP). That's the bump in the middle of the lower part
of the back of your head. But in 1968 the Clark Panel concluded the x-rays
showed the entrance wound was actually a whopping 4 inches higher, near the
cowlick region. The HSCA's forensic pathology panel reached the same conclusion
in 1979. The autopsy doctors vehemently objected to this relocation of the rear
head entry wound. Although the chief autopsist, Dr. James Humes, under great
pressure, temporarily went along with the new location for the wound, he later
made it clear did not really accept the revised location. We now know, thanks
to released documents, that one of the other JFK autopsy doctors, Dr. Pierre
Finck, was adamant that the apparent entrance wound near the cowlick in the
autopsy photos was not a wound. Indeed, we now know that Dr. Finck went so far
as to question how the autopsy photos had been authenticated as having been
taken at the autopsy! That is an astounding fact. The third JFK autopsist, Dr.
J. Thornton Boswell, likewise strongly rejected the revised location for the
rear head entry wound.
Surely it is hard to believe that three
pathologists could so woefully mislocate a wound--by a whopping 4 inches--after
examining it and handling it for an extended period of time, especially when
they located it in reference to the EOP. Others who were present at the autopsy
agree with the autopsy doctors in placing the wound very near the EOP, not 4
inches higher close to the cowlick.
WC apologists now almost universally argue
that the autopsy doctors simply "goofed," that they innocently
"erred" in describing the rear head entry wound's location. By 4 inches? All three of them?
Even after examining it and handling it for a prolonged period of time? Even
though they located it in reference to the EOP? "Yes," say nearly all
lone-gunman theorists. These same researchers will then turn around and argue
that the autopsy doctors' descriptions of the locations of the back wound and
the large head wound are reliable and accurate.
"But the higher location is confirmed
by the autopsy skull x-rays," claim lone-gunman theorists. Is it really?
One of the radiology experts for the HSCA told the committee the x-rays did not
conclusively show an entry wound at the higher location. Dr. Mantik examined
the autopsy x-rays and found no entrance wound at the higher location, only a
small, transverse wound that was much too small to be the entry point for a 6.5
mm missile.
Why would it have been deemed necessary to
revise the rear head entry wound's location? Because the location described in
the autopsy report and so adamantly defended by the autopsy pathologists could
not possibly have been made by a bullet fired from the window from which Oswald
allegedly performed the shooting. The WC solved this problem by simply assuming
Kennedy was leaning nearly 60 degrees forward when the missile struck him in
the back of the head. Of course, the Zapruder film and other photographic
evidence show Kennedy was not even remotely leaning that far forward at the
time of the head shot.
What is sometimes overlooked is that the
revised location for the rear head entry wound really doesn't line up with the so-called
Oswald sniper window either. Donahue noticed this, and this was another fact
that led him to reject the lone-gunman version of the head shot. Although the
higher location for the wound is problematic, it isn't nearly as problematic as
the location described in the autopsy report. Truth be told, neither location really lines up with
the infamous sixth-floor window from which Oswald supposedly fired, neither
horizontally nor vertically, when one examines the Zapruder film and other
footage of the assassination. Donahue concluded the shot to the back of the
head came from a much lower location than the sixth-floor window.
5. THE FRAGMENTS IN THE AUTOPSY SKULL X-RAYS
AND THE BEHAVIOR OF THE AMMUNITION THAT STRUCK KENNEDY IN THE HEAD
Skeptics of the lone-gunman theory have long
noted that the extensive skull fracturing and bullet fragmentation visible on
the autopsy skull x-rays strongly indicate that the ammunition that struck the
president's head was not the same
kind of ammunition that Oswald allegedly used. The skull
x-rays show 35 to 40 bullet fragments. Such fragmentation is typical of
high-velocity, frangible ammunition, not the low-to-medium-velocity FMJ
ammunition that Oswald supposedly used. The fact that FMJ bullets are not known
for leaving numerous fragments when they penetrate skulls is yet another factor
that led Donahue to reject the lone-gunman explanation for the head shot
(assuming, for the sake of argument, that only one bullet struck the skull).
Even the Clark Panel concluded that the missile that struck the back of the
president's head was a high-velocity bullet. Said the panel,
These findings
indicate that the back of the head was struck by a single bullet travelling at high velocity. . . . (Clark Panel Report, "Examination of
Photographs of Head," reproduced in Mortal
Error, p. 316, emphasis added)
However, Oswald used low-to-medium-velocity ammunition. FBI firearms expert Robert
Frazier explained to the commission that the Carcano rifle was a low-velocity weapon:
Mr. EISENBERG. How
does the recoil of this weapon [the Mannlicher-Carcano rifle that Oswald
supposedly used] compare with the recoil of the average military rifle?
Mr. FRAZIER. Considerably less. The recoil is nominal with this weapon,
because it has a very low velocity
and pressure, and just an average-size bullet weight.
Mr. EISENBERG. Is
the killing power of the bullets essentially similar to the killing power at
these ranges---the killing power of the rifles you have named?
Mr. FRAZIER. No, sir.
Mr. EISENBERG. How
much difference is there?
Mr. FRAZIER. The
higher velocity bullets of approximately the same weight would have more
killing power. This has a low velocity.
. . . (3 H 414, emphasis added)
Dr. Michael Kurtz has done considerable
research on the wound ballistics aspects of the case. Dr. Kurtz likewise
concludes that the skull fracturing and bullet fragmentation visible on the
autopsy x-rays indicate that high-velocity, not low-velocity or
medium-velocity, ammunition struck the president's skull:
The x-rays of the
skull reveal massive multiple fractures of the skull on both the right and left
sides. There is extensive fragmentation of the bone, and several pieces of the
skull are missing. This type of damage is not produced by ammunition like that
allegedly used by Oswald. Copper-jacketed bullet commonly penetrate straight
through objects, leaving only small tracks and causing little in the way of
bone fractures. Wounds ballistics tests performed for the commission confirmed
this. Bullets from Oswald's rifle, from a .257 Roberts soft-point hunting
rifle, and from a United States Army M-14 rifle were fired into blocks of
gelatin covered with masonite. The Mannlicher-Carcano bullet went straight
through the gelatin, leaving a tiny track and causing little damage to the substance.
The soft-point hunting bullet expanded rapidly upon entering and considerably
more damage. The M-14 bullet caused more destruction than the others. . . .
The skull x-rays
also depicted extensive bullet fragmentation within the skull. This type of
fragmentation is not typical of full-jacketed military ammunition. That
ammunition was specifically designed to remain intact when passing through a
body. Lead, or hollow-point, ammunition is the type that causes fragmentation.
. . .
World War II films
of men being shot in the head by Mannlicher-Carcano rifles reveal absolutely no
massive explosion of brain tissue and also show quite graphically that the men
invariably fell in the same direction as the trajectory of the bullets that
struck them. Autopsy photographs and x-rays of some of the victims of
Mannlicher-Carcano-inflicted head wounds also showed no bullet fragmentation,
no serious disruption of brain tissue, and very small exit wounds. (Crime of the Century, Knoxville:
University of Tennessee Press, 1982, pp. 91, 104)
The usual failure of FMJ bullets to leave
numerous fragments IN skulls was also seen in Dr. Lattimer's own wound
ballistics tests. Dr. Lattimer fired Carcano missiles at test skulls packed
with a substance designed to simulate the scalp. X-rays of these test skulls
revealed no bullet fragments, not even near the wound of entry in the rear top
of the head (Kurtz, Crime of the Century,
p. 98).
The x-rays of two of the skulls used in the
WC's wound ballistics tests pose another problem for the lone-gunman theory.
The fragmentation seen on these x-rays differs markedly from the fragmentation
seen on the autopsy x-rays, in location, nature, and number. Howard Roffman
explains:
These [2] X rays
depict gelatin-filled human skulls shot with ammunition of the type allegedly
used by Oswald. They were classified by the government and remained suppressed
until recently; they are printed here for the first time ever. What they reveal
is that Oswald's rifle could not have produced the head wounds suffered by
President Kennedy. The bullet that hit the president in the head exploded into
a multitude of minuscule fragments. One Secret Service agent described the
appearance of these metal fragments on the X rays:
"The whole head looked like a little mass of stars." The
fragmentation depicted on these test X rays obviously
differs from that described in the president's head. The upper X ray reveals
only relatively large fragments concentrated at the point of entrance; the
lower reveals only a few tiny fragments altogether. This gives dramatic,
suppressed proof that Oswald did not fire the shot that killed President
Kennedy. (Photo: National Archives) (Presumed
Guilty, 1976, photo pages 8 and 9, chapter 5)
Another ballistics problem for the
lone-gunman theory is that the number of known and unknown fragments from the
head shot appears to add up to much more than one Carcano missile, which means
more than one bullet struck Kennedy in the head. Dr.
Kurtz explains:
The
known fragments both inside and outside the head total more than two-thirds of
an intact Mannlicher-Carcano bullet. This does not account for the fact that a sizable number of fragments
exploded completely out of the head and were propelled out of the limousine on
to the street. . . . The Ramsey Clark panel states specifically that most of
the bullet that struck the president "emerged from the head." Dr.
Lattimer estimated that 95 grains of the bullet which struck the head
"apparently went completely over the windshield to strike the street
further along." His calculation is based on the fact that 65 grains of the
bullet were recovered. This calculation, however, is based entirely upon the
total weight of the limousine fragments. He does not include the weight of the
two fragments recovered from the head nor those remaining in the head.
Dr. Lattimer
estimated that 70 percent of the right half of the brain as well as 50 percent
of the right half of the skull was missing. Over thirty-five fragments, many
over 1 mm. in diameter, two over 6 mm., remained in
that portion of the brain and skull which did not explode out of the head. It
is not unreasonable to postulate that at least as many fragments must have been
blown out of the head as remained in it.
Wounds ballistics
tests conducted for the Warren Commission by Dr. Alfred Olivier confirmed this.
A bullet from Oswald's rifle fired into a test skull fragmented extensively, ejecting over thirty fragments outside the
skull. Two very large fragments composing approximately 70 percent of the
test bullet were found outside the
skull. Twenty-nine smaller fragments, some as large as 6 mm. in diameter, were
also discovered outside the test
skull. Collectively, these fragments total about 95 percent of the total size of the test bullet. Dr. Lattimer also
performed ballistics tests that verified the fact that most of the intact size
and weight of Mannlicher-Carcano bullets were blown out of the skulls.
The results of
these tests indicate that the total number of known and unknown fragments add
up to substantially more than one of Oswald's bullets. The bullet fragments
remaining in the brain plus those in the skull plus those removed from the
brain plus those the limousine fragments plus those never recovered strongly
suggest that more than one bullet struck President Kennedy in the head. (Crime of the Century, pp. 97-98,
emphasis added)
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Michael
T. Griffith holds a Master’s degree in Theology from The Catholic Distance
University, a Graduate Certificate in Ancient and Classical History from
American Military University, a Bachelor’s degree in Liberal Arts from
Excelsior College, and two Associate in Applied Science degrees from the
Community College of the Air Force. He
also holds an Advanced Certificate of Civil War Studies and a Certificate of
Civil War Studies from